You must find an Edge. You must think Differently

Extraordinary performance can only come from being different. It must be that way. Of course, below average performance comes from being different too - on the downside.

Th problem is that extraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensual forecasts, but no consensus forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly and hard to act on.

The goal is not blind divergence but rather a way of thinking that sets you apart from others. If you do what everyone else is doing, you can't expect to outperform.

First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it. First-level thinking looks similar and familiar. Everyone reaches the same conclusions. This is where things get interesting. The road to out-thinking people can't come from first-order thinking. It must come from second-order thinking. Extraordinary performance comes from seing things that other people can't see.

First-order thinking is fast and easy. Second-order thinking is more deliberate.

Second-order thinking takes a lot of hard work. It's not easy to think in terms of systems, interactions, and time. However, doing so is a smart way to separate yourself from the herd.